MarketRiskFactors Our most significant source of publicly traded equity risk arises from equity-linked products with guarantees, where the guarantees are linked to the performance of the underlying funds. • Publicly traded equity performance risk arises from a variety of sources, including guarantees associated with equity-linked investments such as variable annuity and segregated fund products, general fund investments in publicly traded equities and mutual funds backing general fund product liabilities. • Market conditions resulting in reductions in the asset value we manage has an adverse effect on the revenues and profitability of our investment management business, which depends on fees related primarily to the values of assets under management and administration. • Guaranteed benefits of variable annuity and segregated funds are contingent and payable upon death, maturity, permitted withdrawal or annuitization. If equity markets decline or even if they increase by an amount lower than that assumed in our actuarial valuation, additional liabilities may need to be established to cover the contingent liabilities, resulting in a reduction in net income attributed to shareholders and regulatory capital ratios. Further, if equity markets do not recover to the amount of the guarantees, by the dates the liabilities are due, the accrued liabilities will need to be paid out in cash. In addition, sustained flat or declining public equity markets would likely reduce asset-based fee revenues related to variable annuities and segregated funds with guarantees and related to other wealth and insurance products. • Where publicly traded equity investments are used to support general fund product liabilities, the policy valuation incorporates projected investment returns on these assets. If actual returns are lower than the expected returns, the investment losses will reduce net income attributed to shareholders. • For products where the investment strategy applied to future cash flows in the policy valuation includes investing a specified portion of future cash flows in publicly traded equities, a decline in the value of publicly traded equities relative to other assets could require us to change the investment mix assumed for future cash flows, which may increase policy liabilities and reduce net income attributed to shareholders. A reduction in the outlook for expected future returns for publicly traded equities, which could result from a fundamental change in future expected economic growth, would increase policy liabilities and reduce net income attributed to shareholders. Furthermore, to the extent publicly traded equities are held as AFS, other than temporary impairments that arise will reduce income. • Expected long-term annual market growth assumptions for public equities for key markets are based on long-term historical observed experience. See “Critical Actuarial and Accounting Policies” below for the rates used in the stochastic valuation of our segregated fund guarantee business. The calibration of the economic scenario generators that are used to value segregated fund guarantee business complies with current CIA Standards of Practice for the valuation of these products. Implicit margins, determined through stochastic valuation processes, lower net yields used to establish policy liabilities. Assumptions used for public equities backing liabilities are also developed based on historical experience but are constrained by different CIA Standards of Practice and differ slightly from those used in stochastic valuation. Alternative asset return assumptions vary based on asset class but are largely consistent, after application of valuation margins and differences in taxation, with returns assumed for public equities. We experience interest rate and spread risk within the general fund primarily due to the uncertainty of future returns on investments. • Interest rate and spread risk arises from general fund guaranteed benefit products, general fund adjustable benefit products with minimum rate guarantees, general fund products with guaranteed surrender values, segregated fund products with minimum benefit guarantees and from surplus fixed income investments. The risk arises within the general fund primarily due to the uncertainty of future returns on investments to be made as assets mature and as recurring premiums are received and invested or reinvested to support longer dated liabilities. Interest rate risk also arises due to minimum rate guarantees and guaranteed surrender values on products where investment returns are generally passed through to policyholders. A rapid rise in interest rates may also result in losses attributable to early liquidation of fixed income instruments supporting contractual surrender benefits, if customers surrender to take advantage of higher interest rates on offer elsewhere. In contrast, in a lower interest rate environment, borrowers may prepay or redeem fixed income securities, mortgages and loans with greater frequency in order to borrow at lower market rates, potentially reducing the returns on our investment portfolio, if there are no make whole conditions. Substantially all our fixed income securities, mortgages and loans portfolio include make whole conditions. • The valuation of policy liabilities reflects assumptions for the yield on future investments and the projected cash flows associated with interest rate hedges. A general decline in interest rates, without a change in corporate bond spreads and swap spreads, will reduce the assumed yield on future investments but favourably impact the value of lengthening interest rate hedges. Conversely, a general increase in interest rates, without a change in corporate bond spreads and swap spreads, will increase the assumed yield on future investments, but unfavourably impact the value of lengthening interest rate hedges. The Company’s disclosed estimated impact from interest rate movements reflects a parallel increase and decrease in interest rates of specific amounts. The impact from non-parallel movements may be different from the estimated impact of parallel movements. For further information on interest rate scenarios refer to “Interest Rate and Spread Risk Sensitivities and Exposure Measures”. In addition, decreases in corporate bond spreads or increases in swap spreads should generally result in an increase in policy liabilities and a reduction in net income attributed to shareholders, while an increase in corporate bond spreads or a decrease in swap spreads should generally have the opposite impact. The impact of changes in interest rates and in spreads may be partially offset by changes to credited rates on adjustable products that pass-through investment returns to policyholders. 69